This weekend, we’ve got a 13-fight PPV card at Phoenix, Arizona. This is the very first ever UFC on large ESPN card and DK has some adequate contests for us with this Sunday card. The most important GPP is a $10 buy and $20k goes to 1st place, and there will be $100k in total prizes. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for this final competition and they will compete for a $50k first location price and $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that match. Those Qualifier only contests can be actual bankroll suckers so be cautious chasing those overly hard. I’ll likely stick to the top GPP this week and then throw 50 or so entries at the $20k prize. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a fantastic amount of play into money games. With that said, let’s get into a few plays I enjoy too as my fade of the week:
Money Game play of the week — Vicente Luque ($9,400)
Vicente Luque is the most powerful play on the slate, in my opinion. I believe he’ll be the fighter everywhere this battle moves, and he must predominate. I like locking that triumph in my money game and I think he has a good shot at getting 10x his $9.4k salary. I really do expect him to become popular in tournaments so in the event that you want to fade the ownership there and try to be contrarian, I’d definitely want some Luque investment in cash games. Barberena is tough so that he could continue all 3 rounds and if he does then Luque could score in the 80s and that will not win any GPPs. However, we can work with an ~80-point win in money games since we just need to beat half the field unlike the tournaments.
GPP drama of the week — Cain Velasquez ($9,000)
Cain Velasquez is my GPP play of the week due to the odds. A little over a week ago he had been a -255 favored and that is what resulted in his high $95 price tag. Now he is just -155 and all the worth is currently on Ngannou at his 7.2k price label. I expect Ngannou are the highest owned fighter on the card and when Cain wins then he’ll kill off near half the area. Furthermore, if Cain wins he’s likely scoring over 100-points. I expect his ownership to go down the more his betting line reduces and that’s what makes him a great GPP play. He’s a 0-point floor, therefore that I do not care for him as much in cash game, however for GPPs we want boom or bust to try and reach that 1st place prize.
Underdog drama of the week — Andre Fili ($7,400)
Andre Fili is my favorite dog of this week. He’s $1,400 less costly than Myles Jury on DraftKings, however he’s only a +125 underdog. I think he’s a good chance of winning this battle and I am picking him to get his hands raised. I anticipate this to be an extremely close battle, but I think Fili is going to be the fighter striking in the higher rate and that is what I think do it for him to the judges’ scorecards. I don’t see Fili with 100+ point upside down but we do not really need that at his $7.4k price tag. I think he has a good shot at getting at 10x, so he is playable in most formats for me.
Fade of this week — Andrea Lee ($8,900)
Andrea Lee is my fade of this week. Not because I think she will lose, but I think have difficulty seeing her about the 20k lineup at her salary. I enjoy the $9k range much greater than her and all of them have higher ceilings with their grappling-based match plans. Andrea Lee scored well within her UFC introduction, but this is because she didn’t utilize grappling there. I really don’t see her doing that in this game because I think Evans-Smith has got the edge on the floor and she must be the one looking for takedowns. If Lee will win this battle, then she is going to need to do it on the toes and I don’t see her with a high ceiling with no finish. The only reason to utilize her is because she will be super low owned, and it will create your lineup , but I still wouldn’t advise it.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle on the card and give my complete DraftKings analysis, as well as all of my pick predictions, you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I’m 57-34 to get +188.13un (+$18,813) because May 19th on Premium Plays)
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